한국농업생산통계의 새로운 推計와 그 分析 : 1955～2005

Abstract

There have been lots of indications about the problems in accuracy and trust of Korean agricultural production statistics. However few verifications and corrections about these problems have been done until now, even though there have been lots of indications about this. Therefore analyses about the growth of agriculture in Korea and technical changes are done with the problems of official statistics. Thus, this paper intended to correct errors of production statistics by verifying Korean agricultural production statistics from 1955 to 2005, and attain new estimation of production data. By using the result of new estimation, this paper is reinterpreting the evaluation of Korean agriculture and the analysis result about process of agricultural growth which are done before. First, in chapter 2, the official statistics of rice production, which is in most important position in Korean agriculture, was verified. Based on 'Agricultural Production Statistics' from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and 'Crop Report of Rice' from Rural Development Administration, production technical level of farms and Agricultural Experiment Station were compared and the problem of official statistics were analyzed. According to former studies, there is a gap of production technical level between farms and Agricultural Experiment Station. As time goes, the production technical level of farms is getting closer to that of Agricultural Experiment Station. From these facts, this paper confirmed the fact that rice production statistics before 1980 were overestimated. Average yield of farm of traditional rice variety was estimated by applying estimated rate of technical gap between farms and Agricultural Experiment Station to average yield of Agricultural Experiment Station. By using average yield of farms, average yield of Agricultural Experiment Station and technical growth rate of farm yield which was estimated by regression analysis, average yield of farms of Tong-il rice variety was estimated. According to estimated result, production yield didn't decrease or stagnate in 1980s after achieving high level of production yield in 1970s, but it appears to be growing until 1990s. In chapter 3, the production statistics of crop (except rice) were revised. The official statistics of these crops have very serious gap in time series, because the administrative survey statistics and sample survey statistics were published in same time. Therefore, to solve these problems, the revise method which is used in 1965 was applied in revising process. After revising, gaps among research methods, which were obvious in individual products, were solved. Even though difference in aggregated crop production isn't that big, underestimated official statistics of vegetable were revised and that made production of vegetable increase. In chapter 4, the self-sufficiency ratio of rice and the analysis of Korean agricultural growth process are reinterpreted. During this process, this paper tried new analysis of technical change process about growth. According to analysis result, the self-sufficiency ratio of rice is achieved after mid-1980s. It is different from the former result that the self-sufficiency of rice is achieved in late 1970s because of introduction of Tong-il rice variety. In spite of adjustment of rice, there isn't big difference in growth of Korean agriculture through revise of total crops. As a result, this paper analyzed the self sufficiency rate of rice and Korean agricultural growth process by using the results which is newly estimated and verifying problems of agricultural production statistics. In consequence of these processes, this study found that reinterpretation about analysis of former research is needed and lots of other researches which aren't dealt in this study also need new interpretation.