기획단계에서의 도로유형별 공사비 예측모델 개발 - 제주특별자치도를 중심으로 -

Abstract

As public works are showing characteristics of getting bigger, more complicated and diversified, the problem and uncertainty in computing predicted construction cost are increasing. In relation to this, the construction cost predicted and presented without securing appropriateness may lead to irrational design and construction which may cause discoloration of the project essence.

Construction costs are currently predicted as per the method presented by the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs and Korea Development Institute, which is processed in a way of calculating the predicted construction cost through simple statistical method based on the data of projects previously carried out. Taking this into account, in this study, we presented an algorithm to enhance efficiency of construction cost prediction, and developed and verified a construction cost prediction model in order to enhance appropriateness, casting off the simple statistical method, though data of projects previously performed are referred.

This study was carried out with an objective to utilize the information which can be acquired at the planning stage by aggregating the construction cost data of the road projects executed or being executed from 2003 till 2010 in Jeju Special Self-Governing Province.

In this study, effective factors on construction cost of road projects are deduced through the existing study literature and specialist consultation, and their weights were presented through correlation analysis, before utilizing them for a construction cost prediction model which was based on case based reasoning. Also, we intend to present a construction cost prediction model more accurate than the current Planning Stage Construction Cost Prediction method, verifying the reliability of Planning Stage Road Project Construction Cost Prediction Model presented in this study by comparing it with the construction cost prediction model presented by the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs and Korea Development Institute, which is the current calculation standard.