해수면 상승 시나리오에 따른 제주연안지역 건설시설물의 영향 분석

Abstract

In this study, around Jeju area where climatic change is most considerably appearing in Han Peninsula, we prepared sea level rise height caused by sea level rise (Seogwipo 5.6 mm/yr, Jeju 5.3 mm/yr) and a sea level rise scenario for the case when an enlarged typhoon attacks during high water ordinary spring tide, and evaluated flooding area and effect on road and facility using Digital Elevation Model and GIS Spatial Analysis Technique. As a result, the flooding areas of Jeju-si and Seogwipo-si were shown to be 1.93 km² and 0.97 km² in 2040, 2.68 km² and 1.39 km² in 2070, and maximum 3.53 km², 1.84 km² in 2100 respectively. As the slope at the coastal area in Seogwipo-si is comparatively steeper than that in Jeju-si, the result of the study showed the effect of flooding area was less on Seogwipo-si. As to the effect of flooding on each type of road, the local loads (Gun-do) distributed over the coastal area were shown to be mostly affected and the total length to be flooded was shown to be 35.2 km in 2040, 39.8 km in 2070, and 43.1 km in 2100b. As local load (Jibang-do) and local load (Si-do) are mainly distributed over inland area, the effect of flooding caused by sea level rise on these roads is shown to be small. The areas of facilities to be flooded in accordance with the sea level rise scenario were shown to be 321,017 m² in 2040, 496,256 m² in 2070, and 484,427 m² in 2100b and about 82 % of the facilities of Jeju-do was shown to be the facility which belong to Jeju-si. Most of the facilities to be flooded were shown to be individual houses and what followed were warehouse facilities and fish farming facilities in order. Especially, as there is a possibility for casualties to occur due to disaster in Hwabuk-dong because the effect of flooding on individual houses in this area was shown to be high, we judge that it is required to analyze the effect and construct additional shore protection facility considering the effect of breakwater and revetment. Also, the main facilities to be flooded are shown to be Udo Harbor, Seongsanpo Harbor and Jeju Port and we think that it will considerably affect logistic and marine activities. This study is thought to be a basic data which can be utilized for establishment of strategic coping measures and policies of government affiliated organizations through analysis of effect of sea level rise on construction field.