관광지 수명주기 연구 ; 1962 ~ 2009년간 제주지역을 대상으로

Abstract

The attempts on the modeling developmental processes of tour destinations have been constantly studied by the field of tourism and various models and classifications have been suggested in order to explain these developmental processes of tour destinations. However, although the destination life cycle of Butler has lasted for over 20 years, many essential flaws were detected regarding its usefulness as an analysis tool. Since 2000, there have been attempts to overcome weaknesses of the existing destination life cycle especially through applying various destination life cycle theories and mathematical verifications of Butler's destination life cycle. The purpose of this study is in order to understand the tour destination life cycle of Jeju ; for this purpose, the study model will be planed through theoretical study and the process will be presumed through classification. As well, based on the analysis of classification results, revision model will be researched in order to predict demand and destination life cycle of Jeju. Overall, the evolving process of tourism development policy can be generally contemplated according the destination life cycle of the study sample case, which will enable the derivation of policy implications. The analysis result of the study is suggested as follows. As a result from the analysis of destination life cycle of Jeju based on Butler's model, it is figured out to be exploration phase from 1962 to 1976; involvement phase from 1977 to 1983; consolidation phase from 2001 to 2006; and stagnation phase since 2007. However, some problems are found out if the estimated values and actual values are compared during the period of consolidation and stagnation phase from the study model. According the Butler's life cycle (1980), consolidation phase describes the stage of slowdown in its growth and the stagnation phase describes the stage of delay due to intensified slowdown as the number of tourists is increased. From the actual value of Jeju area, the number of tourists was increased by 1.2 million in 5~6 years during the period of 2001 to 2006, which reflects the consolidation phase. However, more than 1.1 million tourists were recorded only in 3 years during the period of 2007 to 2009 even though this period was considered as stagnation phase. This actual case shows that the theoretical model is not always applicable to the reality. Also according to the previous data of Jeju tourism, it even took maximum of 20 years while the number of tourists to be increased by 1 million. Therefore, except for the time of 1998 when the number of tourists was drastically reduced as the IMF control was introduced due to crucial financial crisis, the increasing rate of the number of tourist cannot be explained as consolidation or stagnation phase from the study model. Rather, newly revised model should be researched to explain the current condition. Similar to the revised model, in order to presume the constant destination life cycle that is divided into two periods, setting the starting point of second period is vital. This study has settled the starting point of second period at the year of 1999 based on the life cycle theory of Prideaux (2000), which asserts that the period and stages should be presumed differently according to the changes in the market supply and demand and the Butler's distinct features by each stage of life cycle (1980). Hence, during the period 1991-1998 is considered to be consolidation and stagnation phases of first period of cycle as it began to drop its increasing tourist rate to one-digit, while the time after the year of 1998 is considered to be a real stagnation period as IMF financial crisis was occurred in the year of 1997. Consequently, it is possible to observe that destination life cycle of Jeju for 48 years from 1962 to 2009 can be divided into first period and second period. First period is considered to be from the year of 1962 to 1998 and the second period is considered to be from the year of 1999 to the present. As well, through the general consideration of evolving process of Jeju tourism developmental policy in accordance with each developmental phase of destination life cycle for 48 years from 1962 to 2009, major tourism developmental policies and Jeju tourism developmental status were corresponded and compared to each other. From this, important political implications were derived, which suggests that appropriate tourism developmental policy that is suitable for each phase is essential and the attraction marketing strategies for each destination life cycle is required.