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제주지역 거시계량경제모형 개발에 관한 연구

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Alternative Title
A Study on the Development of the Jeju Regional Macroeconometric Model
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to develop the Jeju Regional Macroeconometric Model - focusing on the final demand sector in order to differentiate between JDI's supply-side model and previous studies of the model structure, regional statistics available. If we develop and utilize a useful regional model, we can analyze the structure of the regional economy systematically and forecast the effects of policies of regional government accurately. So, I analyzed the inter-connected economic activities(consumption, investment, etc) in the region. This model consists of four behavioral equations, three identity equations so that the model is the simultaneous equation system of seven structural equations.
I estimated the model using the 1995-2009 period data, and applied Ordinary Least Squares(OLS) as a estimation method. The estimation results were very good. And all signs of the estimates were consistent with the economic theory. I also carried out a historical simulation using a Gauss-Seidel dynamic simulation method. And I utilized the RMSPE(Root Mean Squared Percent Error) for the evaluation of the model. This model showed the satisfactory levels of RMSPE(Root Mean Squared Percent Error). After identifying the best model structure in terms of the RMSPE(Root Mean Squared Percent Error), I performed a policy simulation to measure the effects of three exogenous shocks on the Jeju regional economy; exchange rate shock, government consumption expenditure shock, real interest shock. The result of the policy simulation was consistent with various macroeconomic theories.
This study has a few issues. First, the most difficult and important problem is the constraints of regional statistics available. So, the estimated model does not partially reflect the realities or has a possibility of lowering fitness. And also this model has a problem that there are not enough structures for linking foreign sector and regional economy. Second, this model does not consider supply side.
In the future, we will revise and develop the regional model along the following line. First, We need to combine the demand and supply-side models into one general-equilibrium type model through the JDI's supply-side model. Second, We need to construct a more useful quarterly model through the disaggregation of annual data. Lastly, we should try to connect the input-output analysis for the region to make the model more useful in establishing the regional economic development policy.
Author(s)
강연실
Issued Date
2011
Awarded Date
2012. 2
Type
Dissertation
URI
http://dcoll.jejunu.ac.kr/jsp/common/DcLoOrgPer.jsp?sItemId=000000005790
Alternative Author(s)
Kang, Yeon Sil
Affiliation
제주대학교
Department
대학원 경제학과
Advisor
강기춘
Table Of Contents
Ⅰ. 서 론 1
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
2. 연구의 범위 및 방법 1
Ⅱ. 거시계량경제모형 방법론 3
1. 연립방정식모형 3
1) 연립방정식모형의 유형 4
2) 연립방정식모형의 추정방법 5
3) 연립방정식모형의 특징 8
2. 국내외 연구동향 9
1) 해외 연구동향 9
2) 국내 연구동향 13
3. 국내 지역 거시계량경제모형의 연구동향 14
Ⅲ. 제주지역 경제활동의 개요 18
1. 제주지역 경제현황 18
2. 제주지역 경제의 부문별 개요 19
1) 인구 19
2) 생산 20
3) 고용 22
4) 물가 24
5) 재정 25
6) 금융 25
7) 대외거래 27
8) 최종수요 29
Ⅳ. 제주지역 거시계량경제모형의 설정과 추정 34
1. 자료수집 및 추정방법 35
2. 모형의 설정 및 추정 37
1) 민간소비 38
2) 건설투자 39
3) 설비투자 40
4) 최종소비지출 41
5) 총고정투자 41
6) 지역내총생산 41
7) 실질 피용자보수 42
Ⅴ. 제주지역 거시계량경제모형의 의태분석 43
1. 모형의 안정성 평가 44
2. 정책모의실험 49
1) 원/달러 환율 10% 상승 50
2) 재정정책 : 정부소비지출 10% 증가 52
3) 금융정책 : 실질금리 25bp 하락 54
Ⅵ. 결 론 56
참 고 문 헌 58
ABSTRACT 64
부록 66
Degree
Master
Publisher
제주대학교 대학원
Citation
강연실. (2011). 제주지역 거시계량경제모형 개발에 관한 연구
Appears in Collections:
Faculty of Data Science for Sustainable Growth > Economics
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