제주지역 거시계량경제모형 개발에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop the Jeju Regional Macroeconometric Model - focusing on the final demand sector in order to differentiate between JDI's supply-side model and previous studies of the model structure, regional statistics available. If we develop and utilize a useful regional model, we can analyze the structure of the regional economy systematically and forecast the effects of policies of regional government accurately. So, I analyzed the inter-connected economic activities(consumption, investment, etc) in the region. This model consists of four behavioral equations, three identity equations so that the model is the simultaneous equation system of seven structural equations. I estimated the model using the 1995-2009 period data, and applied Ordinary Least Squares(OLS) as a estimation method. The estimation results were very good. And all signs of the estimates were consistent with the economic theory. I also carried out a historical simulation using a Gauss-Seidel dynamic simulation method. And I utilized the RMSPE(Root Mean Squared Percent Error) for the evaluation of the model. This model showed the satisfactory levels of RMSPE(Root Mean Squared Percent Error). After identifying the best model structure in terms of the RMSPE(Root Mean Squared Percent Error), I performed a policy simulation to measure the effects of three exogenous shocks on the Jeju regional economy; exchange rate shock, government consumption expenditure shock, real interest shock. The result of the policy simulation was consistent with various macroeconomic theories. This study has a few issues. First, the most difficult and important problem is the constraints of regional statistics available. So, the estimated model does not partially reflect the realities or has a possibility of lowering fitness. And also this model has a problem that there are not enough structures for linking foreign sector and regional economy. Second, this model does not consider supply side. In the future, we will revise and develop the regional model along the following line. First, We need to combine the demand and supply-side models into one general-equilibrium type model through the JDI's supply-side model. Second, We need to construct a more useful quarterly model through the disaggregation of annual data. Lastly, we should try to connect the input-output analysis for the region to make the model more useful in establishing the regional economic development policy.