제주지역 중장기 인력수급 전망에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to provide information related to supply and demand of the future labor market through Jeju area mid-to-long term manpower forecast to guide participants of education service market to make rational decisions so that in the short term to allocate manpower at the right place through efficient allocation of Jeju area manpower and in the long term to search the flow of appropriate manpower training and supply to prevent unnecessary overinvestment in the economy etc to make a more efficient policy decision to achieve Jeju area society and economy overall efficiency and provide basic information for the right direction. The data that was used for the research actual analysis were official data from National Statistical Office and Korea Employment Information Service homepage between 1989~2011. The process of Jeju area manpower forcast is manpower requirement, manpower supply and discordance of manpower forecast. First, manpower requirement predicts the GRDP forecast by industry and forecast the employment coefficient by using time series trend equation that uses the number of employment by industry data. The manpower requirement by industry is to multiply the forecast of number of employment by industry with GRDP forecast by industry and the forecast of job classification type and occupation type can be drawn by estimation of trend and by applying this to the sum of the number of employment by year, industry to forecast the employment demand. Manpower supply can be forecast by time series trend equation of possible production population by age, gender, education and economy activity rate and the forecast of economy activity population can be predicted by multiplying possible production population forecast with economy activity rate forecast. the same forecast by age, gender, and education. In discordance of manpower forecast, by using the demand forecast by industry, job classification, occupation and the supply forecast of possible production population and economy activity population foresee Jeju areas employment and unemployment rate. In this research, with the inadequate basic statistic data from this area the range of forecast is very limited. To forecast the manpower forecast more specifically it is required to modify and expand the basic statistic data and when it has it is then possible to achieve the purpose of policy function and information function of manpower forecast. Also, the ripple effect of labor transfer between areas and creation of jobs by the government department and government office plan to transfer to Jeju area by end of year 2012 was not considered and the effect on manpower forecast was not dealt with. Besides the direct effect on the government office transfer, there must be additional adjustment on manpower forecast if cooperation of related organizations or business relations or manpower transfer is added. the size and ripple effect can be estimated accurately and at the same time additional work is required to apply the distribution of overflow of manpower to the forecast.