몽골 경제에서 광업의 중요성에 관한 연구

Abstract

Mongolia, located in the north of Central Asia, is the border country of China and Russia. It is densely populated compared with broad land and has abundant natural resources which is estimated to have the world's third-largest coal reserves. The country which possesses huge undeveloped natural resources is world's top-ten richest countries in terms of natural resources. The natural resources including coal, copper, gold, fluoride, iron lead, molybdenum, silver, tungsten, uranium, and zinc in Mongolia contribute to high economic growth of the country. In this study, we discussed the importance of mining for the development of economy using empirical analysis and then derived some strategies for economic development by utilizing natural resources. The actual monthly data from January of 2001 to December of 2010 were collected from Mongolian National Statistical Office (NSO). We examined the contribution of mining industry in industrial production and found that it played an very important role in the growth of industrial production. In empirical analysis we examined some statistical tests such as unit root and cointegration. Results of these tests suggested that we need a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) rather than a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model. Using VECM we examined the impulse response function and found that exogenous shock in mining has an significant impact on the growth rate of industrial production. With forecasting error decomposition we found that the mining shock accounts over 90 percent of the variation of the industrial production. In conclusion, mining has played a very important role in the development of the Mongolian economy. Furthermore, it is inevitable for Mongolia to utilize natural resources for the economic development over next some decades.