중국인의 제주관광 수요증가에 따른 지역경제파급효과 추정에 관한 연구

Abstract

The aim of this study is to predict the demand of the increasing number of Chinese tourists to identify the regional economic impacts. The increase in the number of Chinese tourists will bring about a significant change in the tourism of Jeju Island, which previously mostly consisted of domestic visitors. This is likely to lead to positive changes in the economy, as well as social and cultural problems. The prediction of the demand of Chinese tourists at this point includes a response to the tourism industry, as well as to the changing paradigm. The number of Chinese visitors visiting Jeju have increased significantly from year 2008, but the predictions have not reflected this. Inaccurate prediction of the demand in the tourism industry can increase the risk of excessive investment, whereas underestimation can lead to lack of preparation that can cause tourist dissatisfaction. In the regional community, this can hinder local preparation to maximize the spending of the tourists. In this study, the data from 1994 and 2011 on the number of Chinese tourists that entered the island were used to estimate the demand of Chinese tourists using a quantitative time series model. The selection of the model for prediction was based on preceding studies and to meet the trend of Chinese visitors entering Jeju Island. The measurement of the accuracy of the prediction was based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE) ratio that uses the actual measurements of the past, and the yearly trend of the number of Chinese visitors was graphed and four models that represent the trend the best were selected. The exponential model that predicted the largest number, predicted 2,710,000 visitors in 2015, and 13,480,000 visitors in 2020. The ARIMA model, which used monthly data and had the smallest predicted number, predicted 2,090,000 visitors in 2015, and 4,360,000 visitors in 2020. The exponential model tends to increase significantly further on, and has a risk of over-estimation when extrapolating further. Based on all the selected models, a common finding was that more than 2 million Chinese visitors are expected to visit Jeju in 2015. The recent increase in the number of Chinese visitors in Jeju was 67% since 2008, but the average increase after 2012 in the model that predicted 13,480,000 visitors in 2020 was 38%. The predicted number of visitors in the demand forecasting model selected to estimate the local economy impact of Chinese visitors was divided into individual tourism and group tourism, and the mean spending per person was calculated to estimate the total spending of Chinese visitors. In this process, the spending criteria were divided in accordance to the 168 industries in the interregional Input-Output table reported by the Korean Bank in 2009. Using the size expenditure of the Chinese visitors according to each industry suggested by the Korea bank in the inter-regional Input-Output table, the effect on production inducement, the added value induction effect and the employment inducement effects were estimated. As a result, the ARIMA model, which had the lowest prediction out of the four models, predicted the local effect on production inducement to be 4 trillion 364 million Won in 2015, and 9 trillion 814 million Won in 2020. Considering the fact that the size of GRDP in Jeju region in 2011 was 10 trillion 400 million Won, the production inducement effect in 2015 and 2020 account for 41.9% and 87.3% respectively. This highlights the significant local economy impact of Chinese visitors based on the size of their expenditure. The estimation of the regional employment inducement effect was 87,571 people in2015 ,and 182,231 people in2020. Based on the number of employees in the region in 2011 of 291,000 ,these account for 30% and 62% respectively. The effect of Chinese visitors in Jeju region is significant, as shown above. Based on these findings, there is a need for continued targeted marketing on Chinese visitors to attract them. There is also a need for expansion of the tourism infrastructure and strategies to expand the size of their expenditure. The predictions of this study are based on the assumption that the Chinese tourism policies and the international relations continue as they have been. Its limitation is that the various changes in the environment could not be predicted. Another limitation is that the interregional Input-Output table based on the industry structure of 2005 was used, which cannot reflect the changes in the industry in 2013. However, the significance of this study is that the demand forecast was used to predict the expenditure size of Chinese visitors, and to estimate the local economy impact using the interregional Input-Output table. This will provide actual data on the importance of Chinese visitors on the localcommunity, and to provide evidence for industrial response strategies.