강우량 증가에 따른 홍수량 변동 및 홍수범람에 미치는 영향 분석

Abstract

As global warming has accelerated to weather in recent years, have frequently appeared and resultant natural disasters are significantly increased. The frequent floods are creating heavy rains and typhoons followed by considerable damage in Jeju. Recently, there have taken been many heavy rainfall events that are exceeding the previous records. It is required to establish appropriate structured and unstructured measures by estimating flood discharge which changing the climatic parameters and increasing trend of rainfall are considered in order to reduce flood damage. In this context, this study estimated design flood discharges and flood stage in Jeju, considering climate change in connection with RCP scenario, the 5th IPCC Report recently published. It also analyzed the period which might be subject to the risk of flooding in downstream of Oedo Stream. As a result, it has analyzed that there might be a risk of flooding when there were 80 years or more rainfall events in 35 years that rainfall would have increased by 10%, 69 years that 100 years or more heavy rain and rainfall would have increased by 20%, and 104 years that 100 years or more heavy rain and rainfall would have increased by 20%. It is expected that this study results of rainfall increasing trend caused by climate change will be helpful to minimize the damage of floods which will secure the future of Jeju.