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풍력발전단지 개발 프로젝트의 순익 리스크 범위 예측

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Author(s)
김효정
Issued Date
2014
URI
http://dcoll.jejunu.ac.kr/jsp/common/DcLoOrgPer.jsp?sItemId=000000007100
Abstract
In Handong on Jeju Island, South Korea, an investigation was carried out which
looked at net profit risk ranges in wind farm development. Wind measurement data
was collected over a one-year period in Handong, and reference wind data for a
fifteen-year period for the same area was collected from a meteorological observatory
at Gujwa. The measure-correlate-predict (MCP) method was applied to obtain
long-term artificial wind data for Handong, in order to estimate variations in the
annual energy production (AEP) and the net present value (NPV) which in turn
helped determine the risk ranges. The AEP and the NPV were calculated under the
assumption of having installed 15 units of a Vestas 2 MW wind turbine at the near
measurement site. Various Probabilities of Exceedance (PoE) levels were predicted for
both the AEP and the NPV in order to clarify the range of possible risk ranges.
The regression and matrix methods for MCP application were used to the one-year
wind data, and variable SMP and weighted average variable Jeju SMP were applied
for economic feasibility analysis. The results showed that a maximum NPV deviation
was KRW 30,288 (Mil.won) at a probability of exceedance of 75% (P75), which
meant there was deviation of 100 million won per year for each wind turbine. Other
economic analyses(IRR, B/C ratio, P/P) were also conducted and studied for
comparison.
A large sensitivity of C.F. and SMP occurred in B/C ratio and NPV. It means the
way of estimation for AEP and SMP is very important for obtaining reasonable
project economic analysis results. Moreover, the deviation in mean wind speed, the
AEP, and the NPV were estimated assuming that the annual average wind speed
varies in a cycle of fifteen years. The range of NPV variation was from -16.78% to
+26.24% over fifteen years, which was greater than that of the corresponding
variations for wind speed and the AEP. Accurate estimation of wind speed is the
most essential part for minimizing the risk in wind farm development project.
Department
대학원 풍력특성화협동과정
Awarded Date
2015. 2
Table Of Contents
I. 서 론 1
1. 연구배경 1
2. 연구목적 2
3. 국내 풍력산업 현황 4

II. 연구 개요 5
1. 예비 타당성 분석 일반 절차 5
2. 경제성 평가 7
2.1 경제성 분석 조건 7
2.2 경제성 분석 기법 10

III. 분석 방법 및 AEP 예측 13
1. 연구대상 지점 13
1.1 관측지점 13
1.2 가상의 한동 사이트 15
1.3 사이트 풍황 분석 15
2. MCP를 이용한 AEP 예측 18
2.1 MCP 방법의 정의 18
2.2 Linear Regression MCP의 적용 19
2.3 Matrix MCP의 적용 20
2.4 Regression과 Matrix MCP 예측 결과 비교 20
2.5 풍속 데이터에 따른 추정 AEP 23
2.6 PoE에 따른 AEP 변화 24

IV. 고정 및 변동 SMP를 적용한 순의 추정 29
1. 고정 및 변동 SMP 29
1.1 고정 및 변동 SMP의 정의 29
1.2 제주 전력계통 현황 30
1.3 제주도내 풍력발전 설비 현황 31
2. 가중 평균 변동 제주 SMP 추정 33
2.1 제주-육지간 HVDC 연계 33
2.2 가중 평균 변동 제주 SMP 추정 34
3. 고정 및 변동 SMP 적용에 따른 현금흐름 변화 40
3.1 시간에 따른 추정 SMP 변화 40
3.2 경제성 분석 결과 41
3.3 NPV와 현금흐름 46
4. 민감도 및 편차 분석 51
4.1 민감도 분석 51
4.2 편차 분석 53

V. 결 론 55
참고문헌 57
Degree
Master
Publisher
제주대학교 대학원
Citation
김효정. (2014). 풍력발전단지 개발 프로젝트의 순익 리스크 범위 예측
Type
Dissertation
Appears in Collections:
General Graduate School > Multidisciplinary Graduate School Program for Wind Energy
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