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MERRA 재해석 자료를 이용한 풍력 발전량 예측 성능평가

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Author(s)
신인규
Issued Date
2015
URI
http://dcoll.jejunu.ac.kr/jsp/common/DcLoOrgPer.jsp?sItemId=000000007411
Abstract
Using MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application) reanalysis data, wind resource assessment has been performed when there is no wind data measured on met mast. However there are not many studies about reliability of MERRA reanalysis data in South Korea. The investigation was carried out for evaluating how much MERRA reanalysis data is reliable for wind resource assessment. The evaluation result was compared with that obtained using wind data measured on met mast. The real annual energy production (AEP) was obtained from Hankyung wind farm with 21 MW capacity of wind turbines, which was used as a reference wind farm. The measurement period was all from January 13, 2010 to January 12, 2011. The collecting points for MERRA reanalysis data and met mast data were 24 km and 14.1 km away from Hankyung wind farm, respectively. The wind farm design software, WindPRO, was used for AEP prediction.
The results show that using MERRA reanalysis data caused -16.25 % error for AEP, and -17.40 % error for Capacity Factor. On the other hand, the prediction using met mast data resulted in -7.19 % error for AEP, and -8.42 % for Capacity Factor. Based on this result, it is not recommended to use MERRA reanalysis data whose collecting point is as far away as this investigation for wind resource assessment. However it could bring more accurate AEP prediction to use MERRA reanalysis data from collecting point closer to a given site.
Alternative Title
Performance Assessment for Prediction of Wind Power Production using MERRA Reanalysis Data
Department
산업대학원 풍력공학과
Awarded Date
2016. 2
Table Of Contents
List of figures ⅱ
List of tables ⅳ
Summary ⅴ

Ⅰ. 서 론 1
1. 연구배경 1
2. 연구목적 5

Ⅱ. 대상 풍력단지 개요 및 바람 데이터 기초분석 6
1. 한경 풍력단지 개요 6
2. 기상계측타워(Mat-Mast) 바람 자료 현황 8
1) 기상계측타워(Mat-Mast) 현황 8
2) 계측지점 바람 자료 분석 10
3. MERRA 재해석 자료 현황 13
1) MERRA 재해석 자료 현황 13
2) MERRA 재해석 자료 분석 14

Ⅲ. 발전량 예측 및 비교 분석 18
1. 한경풍력 발전실적 분석 18
1) 발전량 산정 이론 18
2) 한경풍력 발전실적 분석 19
3) 연간 발전량(AEP) 보정 26
2. 기상계측타워 자료를 이용한 한경풍력단지 발전량 예측 35
1) 한경풍력단지 AEP 예측 35
2) 한경풍력단지 예측 AEP 분석 37
3. MERRA 재해석 자료를 이용한 한경풍력단지 발전량 예측 39
1) 한경풍력단지 AEP 예측 39
2) 한경풍력단지 예측 AEP 분석 40
4. 예측발전량 종합비교 42
1) 연간 총 에너지 생산량(AEP) 비교 42
2) 연간 설비 이용률(CF) 비교 43

Ⅳ. 결 론 44

참고문헌 46
Degree
Master
Publisher
제주대학교 산업대학원
Citation
신인규. (2015). MERRA 재해석 자료를 이용한 풍력 발전량 예측 성능평가
Type
Dissertation
Appears in Collections:
Graduate School of Industry > Wind Energy Engineering
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