칼만 필터를 이용한 제주지역 경기변동의 특성 연구

Abstract

The business cycle is the downward and upward movement of all economic activity within a certain long- or short-term growth trend. In order to encourage sustainable economic growth, it is very important that we study the underlying factors of business cycles and the types of changes within these cycles. Therefore, this paper investigates the characteristics of business cycles in Jeju by using the Kalman Filter and VAR model for the sustainable development of the region. The results were as follows. First, a high rate of probability trends factors for long-term economic growth such as capital accumulation, capital investment, technological development means that Jeju Island has high growth potential. Second, in Jeju the production variability was unable to contribute to volatility in the employment sector. Third, the tourism sector of primary industries has a stabilizing effect on the economic cycle.