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양식 미역 패널추정 수급시뮬레이션모형을 활용한 엔화가치 변동에 따른 수급변화 분석

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Author(s)
은종호
Issued Date
2015
URI
http://dcoll.jejunu.ac.kr/jsp/common/DcLoOrgPer.jsp?sItemId=000000007538
Abstract
This study set out to introduce a process of building a demand
and supply simulation model for cultured sea mustard by using a
panel estimation technique(Pooled OLS) and analyze changes to
the demand and supply of cultured sea mustard according to
fluctuating yen values based with the model. The study used a
partial equilibrium model to reflect the demand and supply
characteristics of cultured sea mustard market more rationally,
developed a demand and supply model to enable dynamic
recursive simulations, and organized a model in simultaneous
equations of recursive type.
The period of basic prospect was set at 2015~2017. A demand
and supply simulation model for cultured sea mustard was
established by the years. The investigator reviewed variables
needed in the model including the demand & supply, yield,
export, and consumption of cultured sea mustard and estimated
each of their functions. The prospect estimated that the yield of
sea mustard would be approximately 536,132 tons in 2017 up by
12.1% from 2015, that its domestic consumption would be
approximately 441,324 tons up by 15.6% from 2015 and that its
exports would be approximately 99,175 tons in 2017 up by 2.9%
or so from 2015. The estimated functions had no problems in
model fitness and statistical significance of variables.
The study set a couple of scenarios to analyze the spreading
influences of fluctuating yen values on the demand and supply of
sea mustard in the policy simulation. Scenario I set a 20% drop
from the current level by taking into consideration the lowest
yen-dollar exchange rate due to the influence of subprime mortgage crisis. Scenarios II and III applied the situations of 120
and 130 yen, respectively, to prospects by taking into
consideration the rising yen-dollar exchange rate. According to
the prospect results of Scenario I, the exports will increase from
123,393 tons in 2015 to 129,703 tons in 2017 by approximately
6,300 tons. The unit costs of export will decrease by
approximately 15% from the basic scenario prospect. The
consumption will drop from 14% in 2015 to 13% in 2017 due to
the rising exports. According to the prospect results of Scenario
II, the exports will be 87,352 tons down by 11.4% from the basic
scenario prospect. The unit costs of export will rise by about 8%
from the basic scenario prospect, and the consumption will
increase by 4~5% due to smaller exports to Japan. According to
the prospect results of Scenario III, the exports will be 77,074 in
2017 down by 21.3% from the basic scenario prospect. The unit
costs of export will increase by about 16%, and the consumption
will rise by about 10% due to decreasing exports to Japan.
The scenario prospect results show no big changes to the area
of culture, yield, and prices, which is because the sea mustard is
produced mainly for domestic consumption. There were big
changes to its exports to Japan, which depend on the economic
and market situations of Japan, according to the fluctuating yen
values.
The present study introduced the possibilities of analyzing
changes to the demand and supply of sea mustard in case of
various policy shocks as well as mid- and long-term prospects
for its demand and supply, but there is a need to develop a more
realistic and sophisticated analysis model in response to recent
rapid changes to the market situation including bilateral and multilateral market opening and fluctuating exchange rates and
oil prices. That is, future tasks include building demand and
supply simulation models armed with more accurate predictive
performance by securing long-term time series data or capable of
diverse economic and policy simulations.
Alternative Title
Analysis of Changes to the Demand and Supply of Cultured Sea Mustard according to Fluctuating Yen Values with a Panel Estimation-Based Demand and Supply Simulation Model
Department
대학원 농업경제학과
Advisor
김배성
Awarded Date
2016. 2
Table Of Contents
제 1 장 서 론 1
제1절 연구의 필요성 및 목적 1
제2절 선행연구 검토 3
제 2 장 미역 수급구조 검토 5
제1절 미역 생산현황 5
제2절 미역 수급의 이론적 검토 6
제3절 미역 수급모형 구조 8
제4절 미역 수급시뮬레이션모형의 주요 가정 및 행태방정식 추정 12
제 3 장 미역 수급전망모형 구축 및 예측력 검토 24
제1절 미역 수급시뮬레이션모형 구축 24
제2절 미역 수급시뮬레이션모형 예측력 검토 32
제3절 미역 중장기 수급전망 35
제 4 장 엔화가치 변동에 따른 파급영향 분석 37
제1절 엔달러 환율 변화 추이 37
제2절 엔화가치 변동에 따른 파급영향 분석 38
제 5 장 결 론 40
참고문헌 42
부록 45
도입변수 설명 및 자료출처 45
Degree
Master
Publisher
제주대학교 대학원
Citation
은종호. (2015). 양식 미역 패널추정 수급시뮬레이션모형을 활용한 엔화가치 변동에 따른 수급변화 분석
Type
Dissertation
Appears in Collections:
General Graduate School > Agricultural Economics
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