양식 미역 패널추정 수급시뮬레이션모형을 활용한 엔화가치 변동에 따른 수급변화 분석

Abstract

This study set out to introduce a process of building a demand and supply simulation model for cultured sea mustard by using a panel estimation technique(Pooled OLS) and analyze changes to the demand and supply of cultured sea mustard according to fluctuating yen values based with the model. The study used a partial equilibrium model to reflect the demand and supply characteristics of cultured sea mustard market more rationally, developed a demand and supply model to enable dynamic recursive simulations, and organized a model in simultaneous equations of recursive type. The period of basic prospect was set at 2015~2017. A demand and supply simulation model for cultured sea mustard was established by the years. The investigator reviewed variables needed in the model including the demand & supply, yield, export, and consumption of cultured sea mustard and estimated each of their functions. The prospect estimated that the yield of sea mustard would be approximately 536,132 tons in 2017 up by 12.1% from 2015, that its domestic consumption would be approximately 441,324 tons up by 15.6% from 2015 and that its exports would be approximately 99,175 tons in 2017 up by 2.9% or so from 2015. The estimated functions had no problems in model fitness and statistical significance of variables. The study set a couple of scenarios to analyze the spreading influences of fluctuating yen values on the demand and supply of sea mustard in the policy simulation. Scenario I set a 20% drop from the current level by taking into consideration the lowest yen-dollar exchange rate due to the influence of subprime mortgage crisis. Scenarios II and III applied the situations of 120 and 130 yen, respectively, to prospects by taking into consideration the rising yen-dollar exchange rate. According to the prospect results of Scenario I, the exports will increase from 123,393 tons in 2015 to 129,703 tons in 2017 by approximately 6,300 tons. The unit costs of export will decrease by approximately 15% from the basic scenario prospect. The consumption will drop from 14% in 2015 to 13% in 2017 due to the rising exports. According to the prospect results of Scenario II, the exports will be 87,352 tons down by 11.4% from the basic scenario prospect. The unit costs of export will rise by about 8% from the basic scenario prospect, and the consumption will increase by 4~5% due to smaller exports to Japan. According to the prospect results of Scenario III, the exports will be 77,074 in 2017 down by 21.3% from the basic scenario prospect. The unit costs of export will increase by about 16%, and the consumption will rise by about 10% due to decreasing exports to Japan. The scenario prospect results show no big changes to the area of culture, yield, and prices, which is because the sea mustard is produced mainly for domestic consumption. There were big changes to its exports to Japan, which depend on the economic and market situations of Japan, according to the fluctuating yen values. The present study introduced the possibilities of analyzing changes to the demand and supply of sea mustard in case of various policy shocks as well as mid- and long-term prospects for its demand and supply, but there is a need to develop a more realistic and sophisticated analysis model in response to recent rapid changes to the market situation including bilateral and multilateral market opening and fluctuating exchange rates and oil prices. That is, future tasks include building demand and supply simulation models armed with more accurate predictive performance by securing long-term time series data or capable of diverse economic and policy simulations.