CMIP5 모델의 북서태평양 21세기 말 해수면 상승 전망

Abstract

This study investigates sea level rise based on global warming in the northwestern Pacific using results of eleven CMIP5 climate models for end of the 21st century. The regional projections of sea level change are obtained from the combined global thermal steric expansion plus dynamic topography (sea surface height). At the end of the 21st century (2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005), the multimodel ensemble mean results projected the sea level rise 0.4 m [0.33-0.47m], 0.55m [0.45-0.61m] under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the northwestern Pacific. The CMIP5 projections of sea level changes toward the end of the 21st century reveal more higher over the Kuroshio current region in northwestern Pacific. CSEOF analysis reveals that sea level rises are caused by the decreasing sea level pressure over the high latitude as well as variations of pressure system in the northwestern Pacific and by the resultant change of water temperature. It also found that the highest sea level rise in the Kuroshio extension region of the northwestern Pacific was connected with the large increase of water temperature in this area. Changes in ocean currents, ocean density and sea level are coupled such that changes at one location impact local sea level. Although both temperature and salinity changes can contribute significantly to regional sea level change.