Mankiw and Weil모형을 이용한 제주도 주택수요 추정

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to better understand housing demand on Jeju Island by dividing Jeju into zones, analyzing the demographic, economic, and social characteristics of each zone, and then identifying the determinants of housing demand in each zone. To accomplish this, a Mankiw and Weill model is employed to estimate the housing demand of each zone in Jeju. According to the 2015 Population and Housing Census of National Statistical Office, there are 198,564 houses in Jeju after excluding unoccupied houses, a total of 180,089 houses are used as for analysis. While Jeju has been considered a single area in previous studies, this study divides Jeju into six zones to estimate housing demand. The study is organized as follows. Chapter 2 arranging the basic theories regarding housing markets. Chapter 3 addresses the characteristics of each zone in Jeju and the current housing supply. Chapter 4 reviews theoretical housing demand methodology. Chapter 5 constructs the model employed in this analysis and chapter 6 reports the model results. Finally, chapter 7 summarizes the results and implications of this study. To identify the regional differences in Jeju, the entire island is divided into six zones and their demographical, economic, and social characteristics are studied. As a result, different characteristics can be interpreted depending on regions. It is highly likely that the housing market in Jeju has a false market. To verify this assumption, a variance analysis is carried out using actual sales data of apartments from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. The analysis indicates that Jeju housing market is comprised of six submarkets. The analysis procedure is as follows. First, a Mankiew and Weill model is estimated after dividing analysis data first with Jeju Island as a whole; then divided into two sections, Jeju City and Seogwipo City; and lastly into six zones. The population of each zone is calculated using logistics curves. Finally, the housing demand of each zone is predicted by multiplying estimated coefficient in Mankiw and Weill model and estimated population. Based on the results of this analysis, Jeju Island, Jeju City, Seogwipo City have different characteristics on housing demand respectively. The result shows that the eastern area of Jeju city, which accounts for only 14 % of the whole Jeju Island, has housing demand of 294,984m2 in size, but 64% of total new housing demand 440,957m2 in 2015. It indicates that housing demand is concentrated in certain areas on Jeju. The result suggests that Jeju should find out the cause of such concentrated demand and create policies leading to the dispersion of housing demand in each zone.