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감귤 가공산업 분석을 통한 수급구조 개편방안 연구

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Author(s)
문태완
Issued Date
2018
URI
http://dcoll.jejunu.ac.kr/jsp/common/DcLoOrgPer.jsp?sItemId=000000008402
Abstract
This study set out to introduce a process of building a demand and supply simulation mode for Jeju Field Citrus by using estimation technique(OLS).
The study used a partial equilibrium model to prospect the demand and supply of Jeju Field Citrus market more rationally, developed a demand and supply model to enable dynamic recursive simulations, and organized a model in simultaneous equations of recursive type.
The structure of Jeju Field Citrus consist of Input price, farm selling price of the previous year, cultivation area of the previous year and deduct yield using a technology levels and climate. Also deduct production of Jeju yield Citrus using cultivation area and yield. And I deduct the per capita consumption on the assumption that whole amount of supply will consumed. Using this assumption the price of Jeju yield citrus will be decided.
The study set a scenario to analyze the demand and supply of Jeju field Citrus in the policy simulation. I set up the situation, when if the amount of process would expand to 30,000 tons, 40,000 tons, 50,000 tons, 60,000 tons. Scenario reflect the market situation that is the consumption of Jeju yield Citurs has been expanding due to green citrus and functional materials. Effectively, it is hard to expand the amount of processing to 60,000 tons, but I assumed the government would support to expand a amount of processing. The scenario prospect results show expansion of Jeju yield Citurs market due to expend amount of processing.. According to scenario, cultivation area will increase by about 054ha∼1.14ha from the basic scenario prospect, the price will rise by about 41.36Krw∼82.26Krw
This study suggest mid and long term expansion plan, demand-supply prospect, policy alternative when the price of citrus decline, but there is a need to develop a more realistic and sophisticated analysis model in response to changes to the market situation including processing industry and rural household incomes.
Affiliation
제주대학교 일반대학원
Department
대학원 농업경제학과
Advisor
김배성
Awarded Date
2018. 2
Table Of Contents
Abstract
제 1 장 서 론
제1절 연구의 필요성 및 목적 1
제2절 선행연구 검토 3
제3절 연구 내용 4
제4절 연구 범위 및 방법 5
제 2 장 노지감귤 수급 및 정책현황
제1절 감귤류 수급현황 6
제2절 감귤류 수급관련 정책현황 10
제 3 장 노지감귤 가공산업 현황과 기능성물질 산업화
제1절 노지감귤 가공 산업 현황 14
1.1 가공기술 R&D 현황 16
1.2 미숙과(풋귤) 가공 현황 20
1.3 감귤 기능성물질 산업화 21
제 4 장 노지감귤 가공량 확대에 따른 중장기 수급변화 분석
제1절 분석방법 개요 24
제2절 수급모형 연립방정식 구조 24
제3절 거시경제변수 가정 및 시나리오 설정 28
제4절 주요 방정식 추정결과 및 시뮬레이션 분석 30
제 5장 요 약 및 결 론 41
참고문헌 43
Degree
Master
Publisher
제주대학교 일반대학원
Citation
문태완. (2018). 감귤 가공산업 분석을 통한 수급구조 개편방안 연구
Type
Dissertation
Appears in Collections:
General Graduate School > Agricultural Economics
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