감귤 가공산업 분석을 통한 수급구조 개편방안 연구

Abstract

This study set out to introduce a process of building a demand and supply simulation mode for Jeju Field Citrus by using estimation technique(OLS). The study used a partial equilibrium model to prospect the demand and supply of Jeju Field Citrus market more rationally, developed a demand and supply model to enable dynamic recursive simulations, and organized a model in simultaneous equations of recursive type. The structure of Jeju Field Citrus consist of Input price, farm selling price of the previous year, cultivation area of the previous year and deduct yield using a technology levels and climate. Also deduct production of Jeju yield Citrus using cultivation area and yield. And I deduct the per capita consumption on the assumption that whole amount of supply will consumed. Using this assumption the price of Jeju yield citrus will be decided. The study set a scenario to analyze the demand and supply of Jeju field Citrus in the policy simulation. I set up the situation, when if the amount of process would expand to 30,000 tons, 40,000 tons, 50,000 tons, 60,000 tons. Scenario reflect the market situation that is the consumption of Jeju yield Citurs has been expanding due to green citrus and functional materials. Effectively, it is hard to expand the amount of processing to 60,000 tons, but I assumed the government would support to expand a amount of processing. The scenario prospect results show expansion of Jeju yield Citurs market due to expend amount of processing.. According to scenario, cultivation area will increase by about 054ha∼1.14ha from the basic scenario prospect, the price will rise by about 41.36Krw∼82.26Krw This study suggest mid and long term expansion plan, demand-supply prospect, policy alternative when the price of citrus decline, but there is a need to develop a more realistic and sophisticated analysis model in response to changes to the market situation including processing industry and rural household incomes.