조류독감에 따른 산란계 수급 변화 분석

Abstract

This study set out to introduce a process of building a demand and supply simulation mode for layer chicken by using estimation technique(OLS) and analyze changes to the demand and supply of layer chicken according to Avian Influenza. The study used a partial equilibrium model to reflect the demand and supply characteristics of layer chicken market developed a demand and supply model to enable dynamic recursive simulations, and organized a model in simultaneous equations of recursive type. A demand and supply simulation model for layer chicken was established by the years and the period of basic prospect was set at 2018∼2025. The investigator reviewed variables needed in the model including the demand and supply, number of layer chicken, production amount of eggs and consumption of layer chicken and estimated each of functions include price of eggs. The prospect estimated that the number of layer chicken would be approximately 70,079,799 chickens in 2018 down by 3.1%from 2017, that its the per capita consumption of eggs would be approximately 258 per year down by 1.0% from 2017, that its production amount of eggs would be approximately 695,708 tons down by 0.6% form 2017, that it's the price of eggs would be approximately 2,144 won down by 0.1% from 2017. The estimated functions had no problems in model fitness and statistical significance of variables. The study set a two scenarios to analyze the influences of Avian influenza on the demand and supply of layer chicken in the simulation. The first scenario set a situation when the Avian Influenza occur in 2018. Second scenario set a situation when the Avian Influenza occur in 2018, but the government well respond to the Avian Influenza. According to the prospect results of fist scenario, the number of layer chicken will decrease from 72,293,699 chickens in 2017 to 61,454,596 chickens in 2018. Production amount of eggs will decrease by approximately 6.4% from the basic scenario prospect. The price of eggs will rise by approximately 6.0%. According to second scenario, the number of layer chicken will decrease from 72,293,699 chickens in 2017 to 68,583,610 chickens in 2018. Production amount of eggs will decrease by approximately 1.6% from the basic scenario prospect. The price of eggs will rise by approximately 0.9%. This study introduces the possibilities of analyzing changes to the demand and supply of layer chicken in case of various shocks includes AI, Detection of pesticides as wells as mid term and long term prospects for its demand and supply, but the model need to develop more realistic and delicate model in response to animal disease, sanitary problems and various market situations. In other words, this is the future task to build a accurate demand and supply situation models by securing long-term series data or capable of diverse economic and policy simulations. And when the government is about to enact rural policy, the result of this study will be expected to consider as baseline data.