농가의 농산물가격 리스크와 정책보전에 관한 경제분석
- Issued Date
- This study was conducted with the following two objectives in mind.
First, it was conducted to find out the difference between the volatility risk and downside risk of farm price and check out the validity of the method of measuring the downside risk and the proper control level of the target price for the loss compensation policy.
Second, the study was conducted to analyze the effect and limitation of the loss compensation policy on the real loss of the individual farm. This also means the structural limitation of the loss compensation policy using the single index in order to find out the economic meaning of the solution for the downside risk for the individual farm.
The study was conducted by the following analysis method and features. Prior to the empirical analysis, the classification, system, definition, and risk measuring method in the conventional economy were researched using the prior research documents and advance researches. In addition, the domestic and overseas studies on the description, action principle and compensation method of the loss compensation policies against the price drop were studied. Based on the review of the advance studies, the theoretical analysis was conducted on the inconsistency between the loss compensation policies and the real losses.
The empirical analysis targeted the mandarin and carrot widely cultivated in Jeju area. As the data for the empirical analysis, the daily auction prices made in Garak Wholesale Market during 206 to 2015 and the production cost were used. In addition, depending on the requirement for the analysis, the nominal price and the real price using the deflator were also used.
The downside risk was measured by the SD (semi-deviation) and SCV (semi-CV). In addition, the target price was set using the 5-year average Olympic basic target price, cost or production based target price and the operation cost of production. The empirical analysis was made to find out the proper control level of the target price and the changes in the losses for the individual farm before and after the implementation of the losses compensation policy.
The findings from the study can be summarized as follows.
First, the analysis of CV (coefficient of variation) and SCV_TD(downside semi-CV)shows that the coefficient which well reflects the farmer's losses due to the fall in the market price is the SCV_TD. In addition, the basic target price for 5-year average Olympic basic target price which is currently widely used for the political reasons was found to not properly compensate the re allosses caused by the market price down of the agricultural products. In addition, it was found that the size of downside risk of the tangerine and carrot measured using the target price based on the production cost and management cost gets bigger. In addition, it was found that the carrot is more relatively exposed to the downside risks.
Second, it was found that the loss compensation leads to inconsistency in the target farms for the political compensation and inconsistency in the size of the political compensation. These inconsistencies get bigger as the target price rises. It was also found that among them, the size of the political compensation is big for the farmers who do not have real loses and that its size gets bigger along with the rise in the target price. It was found that the farmers who did not get the political compensation though they hadreal losses were those who tried to get a high sale price with high production cost. It was confirmed that the current loss compensation policy does not guarantee a compensation for them at all.
Third, it was found in the additional discussion that the loss compensation policy based on the target price has the same structure as the basis risk which happens in the weather index-based insurance using the single index.
From the long term and total perspectives, the results of the study show the following implications. For the measuring of the downside risk of agricultural price and the implementation of the compensation policy based on the real losses for the individual farmers, the research system for the production cost should be newly established focusing on the specialized items and regions of the farms. It is thought that, if it is conducted in cooperation with the observation project of the specialized local agricultural product, its effect would be enhanced.
In addition, as the currently used loss compensation policy has the limitation of structural inconsistency, it should be used only in a temporary and limited way. Instead, more focus should be made on the design of the system which can reflect the real losses for the individual farm.
In addition, it was inferred that the structural limitation of the loss compensation policy such as "inconsistency in the target and inconsistency in the size" can be reduced by either enhancing the homogeneity of the feature of the farms by narrowing the target scope or changing the trigger condition from the single-index to the multi-index. The study on these topics would be made in future researches.
- Alternative Title
- An economic analysis on the farm price risks and compensation policy options
- 제주대학교 일반대학원
- 대학원 농업경제학과
- Awarded Date
- 2018. 2
- Table Of Contents
I. 서론 1
1. 연구배경 1
2. 문제제기 3
3. 연구목적과 분석방법 5
4. 연구의 구성 및 범위 7
II. 선행연구와 이론적 검토 9
1. 농산물가격 하락리스크(Downside Risk) 분석 9
1) 리스크의 분류와 체계 9
2) 리스크와 가격리스크의 정의 11
3) 변동리스크와 가격하락 리스크의 분석방법 14
4) 농산물 생산자의 가격하락 리스크 19
2. 한국과 외국의 농산물 가격하락 손실보전정책 21
1) 한국의 농산물 가격하락 손실보전정책 22
2) 외국의 농산물 가격하락 손실보전정책 29
3) 농산물 가격하락 손실보전정책을 둘러싼 선행연구 검토 34
4) 목표가격 기준 가격하락 손실보전정책에 관한 이론적 검토 36
3. 선행연구 및 이론적 검토의 종합 41
III. 농산물의 가격하락 리스크 계측 43
1. 서론 43
2. 분석방법 및 자료 45
1) 분석방법 45
2) 분석자료 46
3. 농산물의 가격하락 리스크 계측과 결과분석 48
1) 농산물의 가격하락 리스크 계측 : 변동계수와 하방 준변동계수 48
2) 현행 정책지지 목표가격(평년가격기준)기준의 리스크 관리 적정성 50
3) 생산비와 경영비기준 목표가격 하방 리스크 분석 52
4. 결과 및 함의 56
IV. 농산물 가격하락 손실보전정책의 효과 및 한계분석 58
1. 서론 58
2. 분석모형 및 자료 59
1) 분석모형 59
2) 분석자료 62
3. 목표가격 기준 가격하락 손실보전정책의 효과 검증 64
1) 목표가격별 손실보전 효과분석 64
2) 농가 실질손실과 정책보전 불일치성 계측 67
4. 결과 및 함의 72
〔보 론〕농산물 가격하락 손실보전정책과 베이시스 리스크 75
V. 요약 및 결론 81
1. 연구의 배경과 분석방법 81
2. 분석결과의 요약 83
3. 결론의 해석과 음미, 그리고 정책적 시사점 84
- 제주대학교 일반대학원
- 정원태. (2018). 농가의 농산물가격 리스크와 정책보전에 관한 경제분석
Appears in Collections:
- General Graduate School > Agricultural Economics
- Authorize & License
- Files in This Item:
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.