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오리엔탈과실파리 개체군 모형 및 생물기후 적합도 기반의 국내 잠재적 정착능력 평가

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Alternative Title
Evaluation for the establishment potential of Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel (Diptera: Tephritidae) based on bioclimatic population modeling in Korea
Abstract
1. Estimation of model parameters for the development and reproduction of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) The oriental fruit flies, Bactrocera doralis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a destructive insect pest not only threatening tropical and subtropical areas, but also spreading gradually along with climate change. This species is a potentially highly invasive fruit fly to Jeju area of Korea. We collected previously published experimental data sets of B. dorsalis complex, including B. philippinensis, B. papayae and B. invadens, and estimated various temperature-dependent models to construct the population model; 1) temperature-dependent development rate and distribution model of development time for the stage transition model, and 2) female aging rate model, temperature-dependent total fecundity model, age-specific oviposition and survival rate model for the oviposition model. As a result, the estimated models expressed the thermal reaction of B. dorsalis well. In the linear model, the lower threshold of eggs, larvae and pupae were 9.6, 7.1 and 8.6 ℃, respectively, and the thermal constants were calculated as 25.4, 163.9 and 178.7 degree days (DD), respectively. The developmental thresholds and temperature constants for egg to egg period were 9.5 ℃ and 717 DD, respectively. In the temperature-dependent total fecundity model, the highest number of egg was obtained 1,947.8 at 21.7 ℃. We also developed a stage-transition model of eggs, larvae and pupae, and an oviposition model for the basic population modeling of B. dorsalis. These temperature-driven models are essential for the development of a population model that would useful for evaluating the establishment of B. dorsalis in Korea and for developing its control strategy. 2. CLIMEX Simulated prediction for the potential distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) considering the northern boundary: with special emphasis on Jeju, Korea Along with global climate change, B. dorsalis has recently expanded from Southeast Asia, which is a source area, to mainland China, where its latitude is similar with Jeju. In order to evaluate the establishment of B. dorsails in Korea, it is necessary to determine the climate suitability. Based on the CLIMEX model, various data sets of B. dorsalis were used to obtain the set of parameters for the best estimation of the northern limit. The biological and climatic data in the current established region, especially China were used. That is, parameters for the calculation of cold stress (CS) value were adjusted to include Wuhan in 2009 (Scenario 1: Wuhan-based model) or Wuxi in 2006 (Scenario 2: Wuxi-based model). As a result, the applied parameters explained well the distribution and occurrence characteristics of B. dorsalis in the world (Wuhan-based model). Climate suitability of B. dorsalis in Korea was calculated using the obtained set of parameters (Wuhan-based model) and the future Korean climate according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In Korea, B. dorsalis could be established in the small part of Jeju Island in the 2010s, and the range gradually spread until the 2090s, and many parts of the lowland of Jeju Island were assigned in the marginal to optimal range. 3. A tentative evaluation for population establishment of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) based on the population modeling: considering the temporal distribution of host plants in a selected area in Jeju, Korea When B. dorsalis invades Korea, especially in Jeju, temporal distribution of host plants as well as climatic suitability of the region plays an important role in its survival and population dynamics. We investigated the abundance of the host plants of B. dorsalis in a selected site in Jeju and parameterized them in terms of temporal availability to incorporate into the population model. The contribution of host plants for the population growth of B. dorsalis in the selected site was different according to the group of host plants. For example, B. dorsalis populations largely decreased by 93%, when host plants belong to Moraceae (mainly Ficus sp.) were removed in the simulation. Also, we found that the host plants of Prunus persica, Ficus carica, P. mume and Eriobotrya japonica in this order contributed greatly to population abundance of B. dorsalis in the selected area, which was important in terms of mid-season host plants connecting the early adult population of B. dorsalis to citrus plants in the late season. Finally, we discussed a seasonal management strategy against B. dorsalis while considering the availability of host plants and the biology of this fruit fly in an invaded area.
Author(s)
김수빈
Issued Date
2019
Awarded Date
2019. 2
Type
Dissertation
URI
http://dcoll.jejunu.ac.kr/common/orgView/000000008910
Alternative Author(s)
Kim, Su Bin
Affiliation
제주대학교 대학원
Department
대학원 농학과
Advisor
김동순
Table Of Contents
List of Tables ⅰ
List of Figures ⅲ
ABSTRACT ⅷ
I. General Introduction 1
II. Review of Literature 3
III. Research contents
1. Estimation of model parameters for the development and reproduction of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) Diptera: Tephritidae) 10
2. CLIMEX Simulated prediction for the potential distribution of
Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) considering the northern boundary: with special emphasis on Jeju, Korea 27
3. A tentative evaluation for population establishment of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) based on the population modeling: considering the temporal distribution of host plants in a selected area in Jeju, Korea 70
References 93
Supplementary data 115
Degree
Doctor
Publisher
제주대학교 대학원
Citation
김수빈. (2019). 오리엔탈과실파리 개체군 모형 및 생물기후 적합도 기반의 국내 잠재적 정착능력 평가
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General Graduate School > Agricultural Science
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