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재생에너지의 전력계통 수용한계 설정 방법에 관한 연구

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Alternative Title
A Study on Setting the Limit of Renewable Energy Capacity in a Power Grid
Abstract
Jeju provincial government is pushing ahead with an ambitious plan to supply a hundred percent of Jeju's power demand with renewable energy by 2030 under the catch phrase of Carbon Free Island 2030. According to Jeju CFI 2030 plan, it aims to install 3.8 GW of VRE (Variable Resource Energy) comprising PV Solar 1.4 GW, On Shore Wind 0.5 GW, and Off Shore Wind 1.9 GW by 2030. South Korean government also announced a plan to supply 20 percent of power demand with renewable energy by 2030 through the 8th Basic Plan for Long-term Power Supply and Demand. The government is actively promoting support and systematic improvement for renewable energy projects through active energy transition policies. As a result, Jeju Island, which is rich in wind resources, has seen its wind farms steadily increase since 2007. And PV have been increasing rapidly owing to the government's active support policy for renewable energy since 2016. Jeju Island is an independent power system separated from Korea's Main Land and is connected by two HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) lines. As of 2019, the average power demand of Jeju power system is 650 ㎿ and peak power demand is 960 ㎿. The traditional generators consist of nine thermal and combined cycle generators in three generation farms, with a total capacity of 777 ㎿. Variable renewable energy (VRE) resources totaling 501 ㎿ , including 265 ㎿ of wind power and 236 ㎿ of PV, are also connected to the power system. With the recent increase of VRE, wind power curtailment has occurred because the power generation exceeds the power demand. Starting with three times in 2015, the number of wind power curtailment is increasing every year. It has occurred 23 times so far in 2019 up to September and accounted for 1.2% of the total wind power generation as 4.4 GWh. In particular, during low power demand period of spring and autumn season, the Duck Curve phenomenon became noticeable and wind power curtailment occurs mostly during the daytime around noon with increase of PV. Even in this situation, additional PV projects are being rapidly connected to power system, and the Jeju provincial government is also actively promoting the proliferation of renewable energy. This dissertation studied the setting method of acceptable VRE limit in the Jeju power system, which is operated independently and has transmission from the Main Land power system constrained. Mid-to long-term demand should be forecasted while maintaining the pattern of seasonal, daily, special low demand period such as holiday season for simulation of VRE marginal capacity. This paper described the proper judgment and setting method for the capacity factor of wind power and PV. To predict exact excess power generation, this paper prepared data that properly maintained the seasonal, monthly, and hourly generation characteristics of VRE and described the forecasting method according to the expected installed renewable energy capacity in the future. This dissertation found that the ratio of installation capacity of wind power and PV should be 50:50 in order to minimize excess power generation and gain the highest profit in the Jeju power system. In accordance with the above method, this paper determined the yearly operational VRE capacity by repeatedly evaluating which renewable projects gain proper profit by not significantly exceeding the forecasted excess generation. Sensitivity of marginal capacity was analyzed as method of increasing acceptable and proper renewable energy marginal capacity. As a result, Jeju power system, which is expected to have an average power demand of 981 ㎿ in 2030, excess power generation will not occur with the installed VRE capacity of 1,125 ㎿. There will be 0.5 % excess power generation with the installed VRE capacity of 1,325 ㎿ (+200 ㎿), and 1.8 % excess with 1,525 ㎿ (+400 ㎿). For the last case, if ESS (Energy Storage System) of 200 ㎿ is installed and operated, excess power generation can be reduced from 1.8 % to 0.5 %. This dissertation concludes that 3.8 GW of VRE aimed by the Jeju provincial government cannot be acceptably installed under the current Jeju power system's operational environment. Instead, up to 1.5 GW of VRE can be installed, with an ESS of over 200 ㎿ being installed and operated to mitigate excess power generation.
Author(s)
金永煥
Issued Date
2020
Awarded Date
2020. 2
Type
Dissertation
URI
http://dcoll.jejunu.ac.kr/common/orgView/000000009415
Alternative Author(s)
Kim, Yeong Hwan
Affiliation
제주대학교 대학원
Department
대학원 에너지응용시스템학부 전기공학전공
Advisor
김세호
Table Of Contents
I. 서 론 1
1. 연구의 배경 및 필요성 1
2. 연구의 목표 3
II. 재생에너지 보급현황 및 대응 4
1. 재생에너지 보급현황 5
1) 태양광발전 보급현황 5
2) 풍력발전 보급현황 8
3) 재생에너지 발전원가 동향10 2. 재생에너지 확대에 따른 대응 13
1) 재생에너지 전력망 연계의 4단계 13
2) VRE 가시성 확보 17
3) 재생에너지 변동성에 대비한 유연성 자원 확보 19
4) 재생에너지 발전량 예측시스템 운영 21
5) 재생에너지 발전량 제어 22
III. 재생에너지 전력계통 수용한계 설정 방법 25
1. 수용한계 설정을 위한 전제조건 25
2. 변동성 재생에너지 자원의 발전출력 범위 26
3. 전력계통 수용한계 설정 절차 및 방법 30
4. 재생에너지 계통연계 안정성 검토 조건 33
5. 경제적 한계용량 검토 및 수용한계 결정 35
IV. 제주계통 재생에너지 경제적 한계용량 산정 39
1. 제주 전력계통 현황 및 특성 39
1) 전력설비 현황 39
2) 재생에너지 현황 40
3) 제주 재생에너지 보급정책 41
2. 제주 전력수요 분석 및 전망 43
1) 수요 실적자료 분석 및 검증 43
2) 수요실적 추세함수 적용 45
3) 중장기 수요 전망 46 3. 재생에너지 발전량 분석 및 전망 47
1) 재생에너지 발전량 실적자료 집계 및 검증 47
2) 시간단위 이용률 환산 48
3) 시나리오별 재생에너지 발전량 전망 49
4. 순수요 전망 54
1) 시나리오별 순수요 전망 54
2) 순수요 계산결과 분석 및 검증 56
5. 초과발전량 계산 59
1) 최소발전기 운전조건 적용 59
2) 예비력 증감발 만족조건 59
3) 초과발전량 시뮬레이션 60
6. 계통안정성 검토 65
1) 최소출력 제약 등 계통안정성 검토조건 만족여부 65
2) 상정고장 시 정상주파수 유지조건 만족여부 67
7. 경제적 한계용량 산정 76
1) 재생에너지 제약발전량 분석 76
2) 매출 및 수익성 분석 80
3) 연도별 수용 한계용량 산정 83
V. 결과 고찰 84
1. 재생에너지 수용 한계용량 증대방안 84
2. 연도별 수용 한계용량 결정 86
VI. 결론 89
참 고 문 헌 92
부 록 97
Degree
Doctor
Publisher
제주대학교 대학원
Citation
金永煥. (2020). 재생에너지의 전력계통 수용한계 설정 방법에 관한 연구
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Faculty of Applied Energy System > Electrical Engineering
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