월동 양배추 중장기 수급전망모형 개발

Abstract

The government is implementing various policies centering on the main production areas to stabilize the supply and demand of agricultural products and control the shipment of agricultural products. However, due to recent climate change and changes in cultivation area , the need for supply and demand control for important items has expanded. In September 2022, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs announced the "Criteria for Designation of Major Vegetable Producing Areas for Establishing Supply and Demand Control System Centered on Major Producing Areas". Therefore, it is necessary for each local government to make efforts to develop autonomous supply and demand capabilities and secure competitiveness. Therefore, it can be said that the importance of the cabbage industry was shown by the additional designation of cabbage in the current notification items. Therefore, in this study, a partial equilibrium model for the winter cabbage market was developed from the cultivation area, farm sales price, and consumer price of winter cabbage in Jeju and Jeonnam, which account for the most significant portion of cabbage production. In this study, the mid- to long-term supply and demand outlook for winter cabbage from 2021 to 2032 was estimated through each estimation equation. Based on the estimated baseline, the ripple effect of the cabbage market was analyzed by comparing market isolation and tariff reduction policy simulations. As a result of the analysis, the winter cabbage cultivation area has been on a modest rise since 2021, which is expected to reach 5,899ha, an increase of 5.64% in 2021, and production is expected to be 287,173 tons in 2032. Farm sales prices and consumer prices are expected to be 899 won/kg and 1,314 won/kg in 2032. As a result of the policy simulation of the market isolation project, if market isolation was not carried out, the total revenue fell by 2.2%. When market isolation was doubled, the total revenue increased by 3.9%, and the farm sales price was analyzed to be -7.2% and 8.2%, respectively. Policy simulations for the additional market opening were conducted for a 13.5% reduction in tariffs and tariff elimination. It was analyzed that there was no significant change in the cultivation area, farm sales price, production, and consumer price. However, when it was lowered by 13.5%, imports were expected to increase 35.8% from the baseline to 11,001 tons as of 2032, and imports were expected to increase by 90.3% to 15,422 tons when tariffs were eliminated. Through policy simulation analysis, it is expected to be useful in responding to changes in the internal and external environment due to market isolation projects and additional market opening, and in preparing production and shipment management measures to stabilize the supply and demand of winter cabbage.